Petrol Price Prediction in Pakistan for the Next Fortnight
The next OGRA petrol price notification is due on 1 August 2026. This guide explains — in plain terms — what will drive it up or down, so you can plan your refuelling instead of guessing. Effective today, petrol (MS) is PKR 265.45/L and HSD is PKR 272.98/L (source: OGRA notification dated 16 November 2025).
The three drivers that decide the next price
1. Arab Gulf Platts benchmark (weight: ~65%)
Pakistan imports most of its refined petrol. The Ministry of Energy uses the 15-day average of MS 92 RON on the Arab Gulf FOB market — reported daily by Platts — as the base landed cost. A USD 3/barrel move on that benchmark typically translates to roughly PKR 2–3 per litre at the pump, before taxes.
2. PKR/USD interbank parity (weight: ~25%)
Because the crude bill is paid in dollars, a 1% rupee depreciation over the fortnight feeds almost linearly into the notified price. Watch the interbank rate through the 10th and 25th of each month — the trend by then usually tells you the direction of the next revision.
3. Petroleum Development Levy & IFEM (weight: ~10%)
PDL is capped at PKR 60/litre by the Finance Act and is already close to that cap for petrol. Small IFEM adjustments (usually ±PKR 0.50) also land in the notification. These are the levers the government uses to smooth extreme moves.
Signs the next notification will raise prices
- • Arab Gulf MS 92 RON up more than USD 2/barrel vs the previous 15-day average.
- • PKR/USD interbank rate depreciated by more than 0.5% over the fortnight.
- • Brent crude sustained above USD 85/barrel through the review window.
- • Refinery Gross Margin adjustment in the previous circular still unrecovered.
Signs the next notification will cut prices
- • Arab Gulf benchmark down more than USD 2/barrel vs the prior 15-day average.
- • PKR/USD stable or strengthened during the fortnight.
- • Brent crude sustained below USD 75/barrel through the review window.
- • Government signalling relief ahead of a fiscal or political milestone.
How much could petrol prices decrease — or rise?
Historically, most fortnightly moves land in a PKR 3–8 per litre band in either direction. Larger swings are usually policy-driven — a budget-day levy hike, a rupee crisis, or an emergency mid-cycle revision after a Middle East supply shock. If you're budgeting, plan for a ±PKR 5/L range around the current PKR 265.45/L, and treat anything outside that as an exception rather than the norm.
Important — this is analysis, not a forecast
We do not publish a specific rupee prediction because doing so would mislead readers. The Finance Division has full discretion to absorb or pass on international movements via PDL and IFEM adjustments, and can also issue emergency revisions outside the regular 1st/16th cycle. Use the framework above to form your own view, and check back on 1 August 2026 for the actual OGRA notification.
Plan around the next revision
If the signals point to an increase, top up your tank on the 15th or 31st. If they point to a cut, run down to a quarter tank and refill on the 1st or 16th. Use the fuel cost calculator to model both scenarios against your monthly driving, or the trip calculator before an intercity drive.
Frequently asked questions
Will petrol price increase or decrease in Pakistan next fortnight?
The direction depends on two moving parts: the Arab Gulf Platts benchmark for MS 92 RON over the previous 15 days, and the PKR/USD interbank rate. If either rises materially, the next OGRA notification typically passes that on to consumers. If both soften together, expect a cut.
When is the next petrol price update in Pakistan?
OGRA reviews prices on the 1st and 16th of every month. The Finance Division issues the notification the same evening, effective from midnight.
How accurate are petrol price predictions?
No forecast is guaranteed. Directional calls based on Platts averages and the PKR/USD trend are usually correct on direction, but the exact rupee change also depends on PDL, GST and IFEM adjustments the government can change without notice.
How much can petrol price change in one notification?
Historically, single-notification swings have ranged from PKR 1 to PKR 26 per litre. Large moves usually follow either a sharp rupee depreciation, a geopolitical spike in crude, or a budgetary levy change.